Tip: Randomly selecting alternating patterns

[franckdw]

Maybe I misunderstand your setup. Your P(01) is my P(04) and vice versa. Same for P(02) and P(03).

However when the first decision made is "Pattern 01 or not" then that's the 25% chance for 01. When I understand your setup correctly, there is no other possible path to pattern 01 and therefor that's it. A similar argument goes for the rest.

But since you basically solved your problem (nice one actually ) this is not really important

Kind regards,
Michael

Nice thread and idea!
Not that it is very important but I think I see grib’s point:
-There is indeed a 25% chance for 01 to win on the first row
-But for 01 to happen you then don’t want neither the 2nd, 3rd or 4th row to win otherwise 01 will be overwritten (by 02, 03 or 04). The last winner takes it all!

Hence

• the probability for 01 is 25% * 75% * 75% * 75% (win, lose, lose, lose)
  
• the probability for 02 is 100% * 25% * 75% * 75% (does not matter, win, lose, lose)
  
• the probability for 03 is 100% * 100% * 25% * 75% (does not matter, does not matter, win, lose)
  
• the probability for 04 is 100% * 100% * 100% * 25% (does not matter, does not matter, does not matter, win)
  
• the probability for 00 is 75% * 75% * 75% * 75% (lose, lose, lose, lose)
  

Fun idea, really!