I'm not quite sure I understand what you write or imply.
Events aren't concurrent but happen one after another. Therefor the relevant probabilities form a decision tree (Entscheidungsbaum would be the german word). In the current example each branch is essentially a YES/NO decision and each branch gets a probability Pn (for the n-th node) with the other branch getting 1-Pn [stochastically you could have more than two branches but that's not what we have here].
The first node in our tree is "play pattern 01 or not". Likewise the other nodes would be "play pattern 02 or not", "play pattern 03 or not" and "play pattern o4 or not".
Here comes an ascii graph depicting that:
The '+' sign denotes a node where a decision is made. The vertices of the graph have their respective probabilities annotated. The probabilities for each single event are determined by walking the path from start to the event and multiplying the probabilities that are on each vertice along the path. I'm not repeating them here, because that's exactly what I wrote in a previous post.
For those not understanding the above I'm happy to try to explain it differently (if you ask). Otherwise I'd suggest one of the many excellent sources on stochastics on the internet.
Kind regards,
Michael
PS: The spacing is completely off...I'll fix that later
PPS: Spacing is now fixed.
Events aren't concurrent but happen one after another. Therefor the relevant probabilities form a decision tree (Entscheidungsbaum would be the german word). In the current example each branch is essentially a YES/NO decision and each branch gets a probability Pn (for the n-th node) with the other branch getting 1-Pn [stochastically you could have more than two branches but that's not what we have here].
The first node in our tree is "play pattern 01 or not". Likewise the other nodes would be "play pattern 02 or not", "play pattern 03 or not" and "play pattern o4 or not".
Here comes an ascii graph depicting that:
Code:
start
| (1-P1) (1-P2) (1-P3) (1-P4)
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------> Pattern 00
| P1 | P2 | P3 | P4
V V V V
Pattern 01 Pattern 02 Pattern 03 Pattern 04The '+' sign denotes a node where a decision is made. The vertices of the graph have their respective probabilities annotated. The probabilities for each single event are determined by walking the path from start to the event and multiplying the probabilities that are on each vertice along the path. I'm not repeating them here, because that's exactly what I wrote in a previous post.
For those not understanding the above I'm happy to try to explain it differently (if you ask). Otherwise I'd suggest one of the many excellent sources on stochastics on the internet.
Kind regards,
Michael
PS: The spacing is completely off...I'll fix that later
PPS: Spacing is now fixed.